Clearly over the last year the market has not agreed with me and whilst there is clearly a wide divergence on valuations I have decided to move my ranges lower to recognise that the market could be wrong, but so could I.
This is not based on a specific pricing exercise so much as the ongoing realisation that Apple will have to perform exceptionally well for some time to get real traction to the top of my range. This sort of long term movement is probably going to require more than just a great Iphone 7 or Iphone 8, but possibly an entirely new category of product. Or even less probable a more aggressive share buy back programme that significantly reduces the shareholder base.
I have now reduced the range to $110 - $130 and in theory am a buyer at $100 and a seller at $125. I say in theory because with my latest Apple acquisition this week I have now reached my 5% of portfolio value in cost value. (That is if my portfolio is worth £100 my cost value can be £5 in any stock). As market price fluctuates I can hold significantly more than 5% of market value in any one share. I will not therefore be buying more.
My position in AAPL has been created at approximately $77.50 so I am not looking to sell at present and intend to hold this long term. If the price does move towards the sale line the sale valuation would be reviewed before initiating.