Portfolio for the year +1.5%
Portfolio performance since I started counting (31/03/16) +144%
July was a lot better for me as the market began to look at companies on an individual basis rather than just applying fear to all of them.
That being said I think things will trend down, absent positive information, in the short term. Though in 5 years successful companies will be ahead of where they are today and there are more short term opportunities to be grabbed. Particularly in the O&G and EV commodity markets.
Sales in the month
MRNA: Rose very quickly after my small purchase in June and hit my deep MoS valuation. There are a lot of bits to MRNA that I do not understand so I wanted a deep MoS. 28% profit. That being said if you understand this area better this does seem to be a company on a low valuation given its field.
Sold GROW. Molten Ventures came out with results and an updated valuation and I had time to look through the accounts and interlocking company network. On what management claim as the valuation the company does look to be very undervalued. However the more I investigated the more I doubted the valuation. And perhaps more importantly it became a lot clearer to me how management will do well, but a lot harder to see how shareholders do. In a lot of financial services there is a real agency question and I was unpersuaded by the GROW Investors presentation where the emphasis seemed to be very much on management and not at all on the shareholders. Got an 11% gain, but more through luck than judgement.
Sold CHRG. I wanted lithium exposure and this gave me one. It also gives exposure to batteries which is undoubtedly a key part of the future, but not one I understand enough to have an investment advantage in. Given this and PILS were my two Lithium opportunities I had not looked at it too hard (I think Lithium is for the next few years an easy win). But recently I did and it seems to have rebased its portfolio from when I bought and I did not know most of the names in it, or what they did. As LAC is a buy this month I felt CHRG should be a sell. Break even on sale.
Sold some GLEN. Still a lot to like with GLEN, but part of the holding was in a wrapper where I felt there was a better opportunity and needed the money to take advantage.
Bought in the month
Added to existing holdings of $CROX, $HALL, $META, QRT, SOM .VTU, In each case the company’s price had fallen to one of my trigger points. 3 alternatives at this point are either to sell and move on, fudge, or believe in the existing decision and add. On this occasion I chose add.
Added some more $CVX. Avg in now $162.39 Increasingly persuaded by the company and how it is controlling cashflow. It is a sub 1% position and my intention in most cases is always to add or close a sub 1% position.
Bought $LAC. C$29.8. I like Lithium, it seems to me to be very much a commodity with a big gap between supply and demand. With the exception of Goldman Sachs who predicts excess supply. LAC for a host of reasons, site economics, Biden policy, court rulings seems to be well placed for the current market and as one of a couple of eggs seemed to me to be better placed than CHRG to sit with PILS in my lithium play.
Added to $MSFT holding. Avg in $206.53. Of all my holdings this might be the one that I am most confident will be worth more in 5 years. So added on a drop before Quarterly results. May add again as the results were good.
Added to RNO holding on results. Avg in 27.4p Company seems to be trading well below what the results say it should. However the later management presentation was uninspiring and there are a lot of important things that management seemed unsure about. So now a very weak hold.
Added to TGA holding on a pull back. Avg in now 538.2p. Think that increasingly this is a story that in 5 years I will have been fully repaid for my investment and will still be holding a decent, though lowly valued company.
Added to VTY holding on Trading Update. Average in now 901p. Yes this business is somewhat cyclical, but it is raising prices after than costs and most of the changes in the market favour large builders over small. The reality that there isn’t more land waiting to appear and that the planning process in this country is slow and bizarre all plays into the hands of the bigger players.