Revenue $17.7bn
PAT $12.2bn
Current Mkt Cap $51.1bn
So a PE of circa 4.2 Interesting!
Co has $4.2bn of positive cashflow in 2021. Though a significant amount of that is non operating. But even factoring for this cashflow is positive.
Cashflow still positive (after adjusting for non operating items - trading in non Moderna securities) in Q1 2022.
Co has been buying back shares and has announced plans to buy back circa 6% more. (I believe there is academic work that says over 5% needed to make a difference). So positive
Of the market Cap circa $10bn - 20% is cash or marketable securities. So the Enterprise Value even lower and if you do PE off that even better.
EPV calculation at $152bn, and I do like a bit of EPV. Almost 3 times more than the market cap.
Co is forecasting for a $21bn+ 2022 sales figure. So at least 15% higher.
Going to be cost pressures so increased revenue may not lead to increased profits.
MRNA focus is a plus as MRNA likely to be a key medical sector going forward. Against what I know about MRNA would fit onto a small matchbox.
Share price down 49% from the start of the year. General market down 6%? So falling knife or travelled into real value territory and oversold?
All medical treatments lose patents eventually - big buyers are usually governments who want it cheaper and have tanks when it comes to final negotiations.
Moderna is an American company and US still a country largely operating under the rule of law. Doesn’t like its companies to be cheated out of revenue it can tax in the US.
Q1 2022 EPS $8.54 extrapolate out for full year $34. Cost per share $122 3.6 times. Still looks cheap.
Cherry on the cake Moderna is $$ denominated. Currently GBP the sick currency of the west so this gets assets out of GBP.