We believe that oil is demand price driven and that it is principally a transportation commodity. We have no view on where the world is in terms of "Peak Oil" but do believe that Morgan Downey, author of Oil 101, is correct in his belief that we have passed peak "easy oil" and that fracking, water, deepwater oil are going to be more expensive. Shell's price will correlate sufficiently to the oil price to allow the 3.2% per annum gain to meet out 10% thesis.
JESL does believe that in the current market a low risk 10%pa return is an acceptable one. Particularly whilst we maintain a significant cash position.