Now Apple does have an issue in that as a very large company there is some doubt as to its ability to grow. Indeed many commentators suggest that Apple is going to shrink and quite quickly from its current levels. Apple's own forecast for the next Quarter suggest some shrinkage, but not at terminal velocity. And Apple has a habit of setting out guidance that it then beats. But how quickly does Apple have to decline and how terminal is that decline that a company that has just set record profits is put on a PE of 6?
Combined with the share repurchase plan and the fact that Apple is not simply sitting and waiting to expire I do think that Apple at these prices will deliver a decent compounded return over the next 5 years.
However Apple is now lower than my worst case prediction following the last quarter results. This was $100 if your interested. So in the short term I do think Apple can go down further, but if you can hold it will deliver a decent return to your portfolio.